在信箱翻舊信時，偶然翻到以前寫的小論文。
這是當年想參加08年日航獎學金暑期赴日研習時所寫的，題目是未來20年，世界可能會有什麼發展或問題，於是我就著手寫了這篇，並請在美國唸書的朋友潤飾。
不過沒有上就是了~ :p 可能是題材冷辟，但最大原因還是不如人吧。
既然翻到了，就隨手貼上來囉。
雖說寫於兩年前，但我至今仍認為，除非世界找到了新的替代能源，石油與中東地區的問題都將十分難以解決。
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The world in 20 years - Problems and Solutions
While talking about the problem we might face in next 20 years, most of people may think of the global warming
issue, abuse of genetic tech or vanish of tropical rainforest. Nevertheless, I think those issues can be solved
gradually because at least most of the people have a common view to these problems, though it will not be easy to
work out. Therefore, I want to discuss a problem which is as important as those listed above but not too many folks
have it in mind.
I believe everyone has noticed that it become more and more expensive when entering gas station to refuel gas. The
price of the oil is almost 110 US dollars a barrel right now. The price is unthinkable 20 years ago. My concerns are
that petroleum will be the key issue in the next 20 years, and Middle East will become an important region than ever.
Oil industry is one of the most essential businesses in the world. With its huge profits, all of the powerful nations will
try to interfere and affect this area. In fact, the action of influencing Middle East has already begun. In 2003, the US
invasion of Iraq is the beginning of it. As we know, most people in Middle East do not like the US at all, so the US
government always hopes to establish a pro-US regime that can be easily controlled so the US can gain its influence
there. Iraq is a wonderful target: the president Saddam Hussein was a tyrant; Iraq occupied Kuwait in 1990; Hussein
threatened the US all the times. That is why the US attacked Iraq. Now everything is followed by the US
government plans: destroyed the Iraqi army to show the military power to other countries in Middle East and give a
lot of benefits to all companies which have good relations with the US government such as petroleum industries,
construction companies and arms dealers.
However, this has caused some problems. As mentioned before, the people in Middle East do not like Americans (or
American government, more accurately). Yet disfavor Americans is one thing, using suicide bomb to blast them is
another. Many people just oversimplify the question that concerning it is only conflict of religions. Indeed, religion is
one of the reason, but not the only answer. We must know one thing first: this is the US responsibility. For a long
time, the US and other western nations intervene in most of the local affairs in Middle East. They help Jews
occupying Jerusalem and establishing a country there regardless of concerning Palestinians on the land for living
more than a thousand years. Israel crushes their houses, droving them out from their homeland. Even now the
occupation is still continuing and the US supports Israel no matter what it does. How could people in Middle East not
feel angry? Besides, most of regimes in Middle East are corruptible and autocratical and the civilians hate local
governments. However, because of those administrations supply cheap oil to the US, so the US ignores the
oppressed people and still sells weapons to local governments to suppress civilians. All these actions made
Anti-Americanism spreading in this area, causing more and more people be radicals and fanned up by terrorists
easily.
So we can imagine this state: terrorists assault western consulates or even their homelands, and then by the name of
justice, western nations sending troops to those countries by claiming hiding terrorists, trying to wipe the terrorists
out, but the people in those countries will think that they are invaded by western nations. Soon they become new
terrorists consequently and it will become an unlimited loop. Though the circumstance in this region now is still not as
complexity as Balkan Peninsula, it would be worse in the future perhaps. In the next 20 years, the chance that this
place will be powder keg of the world is big.
The solutions of all these issues are not simple, but there is still a little hope. The US and other western countries
must understand the true reason why Anti-Americanism is popular in Middle East. They have to realize that bloody
revenge will only make more brutal retaliations, and the situation will never turn better. The only way to end this is
giving up the idea of controlling this region, trying to respect and listen to the will and the thought of people in Middle
East. And Israel should comprehend Palestinians also have the right to live on its land because Palestinians have live
there for a long time. Jews had suffered from the pain of losing homeland, but why they do the same thing to
Palestinians right now? On the other hands, people in Middle East need to know that it is a fact Israel exists. The
thinking of wiping Israel out is unrealistic. They should learn to get along and live with each other peacefully.
Wish the peace will finally come in Middle East.
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